According to Charlie Bilello, Core PCE inflation registered 2.8% year over year in September, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target (source: Charlie Bilello, Dec 5, 2025). Bilello also notes that this 2.8% reading is higher than any point between July 1993 and March 2021, underscoring persistent inflation pressure versus the target (source: Charlie Bilello, Dec 5, 2025). Despite this, Bilello reports that markets are pricing another 25 basis point rate cut next week, setting up a key macro catalyst for rate-sensitive assets (source: Charlie Bilello, Dec 5, 2025). For trading, monitor how this policy path repricing impacts Treasury yields, the US dollar, and liquidity conditions that crypto traders track, with attention to BTC and ETH positioning and implied volatility into the decision window (source: Charlie Bilello, Dec 5, 2025).

According to @cas_abbe, the December Fed rate path is nearly locked after PCE met expectations and Core PCE came in lower than expected, signaling cooler inflation pressures (source: @cas_abbe on X, Dec 5, 2025). The author states US companies cut 1.17 million jobs in 2025, indicating a very weak labor market and reinforcing recession risk as a spike in unemployment is a classic warning signal (source: @cas_abbe on X, Dec 5, 2025). He adds that aggressive Fed rate cuts have historically coincided with weak market performance and that simultaneous declines in inflation and growth reflect a deflationary backdrop (source: @cas_abbe on X, Dec 5, 2025). He argues rate cuts alone may be insufficient and that the Fed would need to inject liquidity to keep the economy moving; otherwise, crypto could face a highly volatile 2026 with BTC and ETH especially sensitive to liquidity and unemployment trends (source: @cas_abbe on X, Dec 5, 2025).

According to @BullTheoryio, the latest US PCE inflation and Core PCE each printed 2.8%, versus expectations of 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively, indicating softer-than-expected inflation pressure (source: @BullTheoryio). The author states that with inflation easing and growth slowing, the Federal Reserve has less justification to keep policy rates elevated, raising near-term rate cut odds (source: @BullTheoryio). The post adds that this backdrop is positive for markets, liquidity, and risk assets such as BTC and ETH, implying a supportive environment for crypto as policy expectations ease (source: @BullTheoryio).

According to @StockMKTNewz, the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report has been released, flagging an immediate macro catalyst for rates, equities, and crypto positioning, source: https://twitter.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1996958114361344302. The official PCE price index and core PCE are published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; traders should pull the headline and core MoM/YoY prints directly from BEA to calibrate inflation momentum, source: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index. The Federal Reserve targets PCE inflation in its policy framework, making this release pivotal for rate expectations and financial conditions, source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/strategy.htm. To translate the print into implied rate-path probabilities and front-end yield sensitivity, use the CME FedWatch Tool and corresponding Fed funds futures term structure, source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html. A hotter-than-expected PCE historically tightens financial conditions and pressures risk assets, while a cooler print tends to ease yields and support beta, with crypto’s correlation to equities elevated per IMF research, source: https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-posing-new-risks. For trading, watch UST 2Y/10Y, DXY, and BTC, ETH intraday volatility around the release window as macro surprises drive cross-asset flows, sources: BEA release page https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index and Federal Reserve policy framework https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/strategy.htm.

According to @cas_abbe, the US PCE and Core PCE releases at 8:30am ET are the final major macro data before next week’s FOMC, with expectations at 2.9% and 2.8% respectively; source: @cas_abbe. He states that in-line or lower readings would lock in a Fed rate cut, and even a slightly higher print would not derail cuts; source: @cas_abbe. He adds that a materially above-expectations outcome could trigger a sharp correction in BTC and altcoins; source: @cas_abbe.

According to @CryptoKing4Ever, this week's macro lineup is Dec 3 ISM Services PMI, Dec 4 Jobless Claims, and Dec 5 Core PCE and sentiment, with the market's focus squarely on Friday. source: @CryptoKing4Ever. According to @CryptoKing4Ever, Friday's Core PCE is the final key data before the Federal Reserve locks its policy decision next week. source: @CryptoKing4Ever. According to @CryptoKing4Ever, a soft or neutral Core PCE print would keep liquidity flowing, while a hotter reading could shake the markets. source: @CryptoKing4Ever.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the US Dollar is on track for its worst year since 1973 with a decline of more than 10% year to date, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, the US Dollar has lost over 40% of its purchasing power since 2000, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, the Federal Reserve is cutting rates while Core PCE inflation runs above 2.9% for the first time in over 30 years, source: @KobeissiLetter. According to @KobeissiLetter, this backdrop favors hard assets, with gold and Bitcoin (BTC) expected to lead performance, source: @KobeissiLetter.

According to @cas_abbe, OG whales are swapping billions in BTC into ETH on Hyperliquid, lifting venue revenue that is earmarked for HYPE token buybacks, source: @cas_abbe on X. Traders focused on HYPE can track Hyperliquid fee revenue and on-chain or venue-reported buyback activity as near-term catalysts for liquidity and price discovery, source: @cas_abbe on X. For BTC, @cas_abbe flags the U.S. Core PCE Price Index release this week as a key macro catalyst for crypto volatility; Core PCE is published monthly and is a primary inflation gauge for Federal Reserve policy, source: @cas_abbe on X and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

According to @rovercrc, next week’s U.S. catalysts include Fed officials speaking all week; Wed, Aug 27: NVDA earnings; Thu, Aug 28: Q2 GDP Second Estimate and Initial Jobless Claims; Fri, Aug 29: Core PCE Price Index YoY and MoM, flagged as key events for traders, source: @rovercrc. GDP Second Estimate and the Core PCE Price Index are official U.S. releases tracking economic growth and underlying inflation, source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Initial Jobless Claims is a weekly labor-market indicator published by the U.S. Department of Labor, source: U.S. Department of Labor. Federal Reserve officials’ public remarks are a core policy communication channel that can influence market expectations and financial conditions, source: Federal Reserve. Crypto traders commonly monitor these macro releases and mega-cap earnings windows for potential BTC and ETH volatility as highlighted, source: @rovercrc.

According to @rovercrc, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, a move that was widely anticipated by the market. The Fed's latest projections indicate lowered economic growth (GDP at 1.4%) and higher inflation (Core PCE at 3.1%) for the year. While policymakers still foresee 50 basis points in rate cuts for 2025, they project a slower pace of easing in subsequent years, as per the official press release. Bitcoin (BTC) showed minimal reaction, holding around $104,200 following the decision. Traders are now focused on two major upcoming events: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony and the release of the Core PCE price index. Analysts at ING suggest that clarity on inflation may not come until December, potentially leading to a single 50bp rate cut this year if the job market weakens. Conversely, Chris Weston of Pepperstone noted that dovish signals during Powell's testimony could fuel risk-taking and benefit BTC.

According to @rovercrc, Bitcoin (BTC) traders are closely monitoring key macroeconomic events this week after the cryptocurrency slumped below $106,000. The main event is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress, where his stance on interest rates will be scrutinized. Dovish signals could boost risk assets like BTC, especially as some market participants, like Chris Weston of Pepperstone, note that a September rate cut is already priced into the U.S. swaps market. However, analysts at ING remain cautious, forecasting only one rate cut this year, potentially in December. Another critical event is the release of the Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, with consensus expecting a benign 0.1% monthly increase, which could support the case for rate cuts. The market is also on edge due to the approaching July 9 tariff deadline and geopolitical tensions involving Iran, which contributed to a selloff that saw altcoins like Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP drop by 5-7%.

According to @KobeissiLetter, traders should monitor Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for potential market-moving signals. Dovish commentary from Powell could fuel risk-taking and benefit Bitcoin (BTC), which has shown resilience by holding above $100,000 despite geopolitical tensions, a strength QCP Capital attributes to ongoing institutional adoption. While markets anticipate two rate cuts this year, analysts at ING suggest only one 50bp cut may occur in December. In the altcoin market, Jeff Anderson of STS Digital notes that the widening spread between Ether (ETH) and BTC implied volatilities creates yield opportunities for ETH holders selling options. However, a newsletter service, LondonCryptoClub, warns of significant selling pressure from large upcoming token unlocks for Arbitrum (ARB), ZKsync (ZK), ApeCoin (APE), and Sui (SUI).

According to @doctortraderr, the cryptocurrency market is showing resilience, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $107,000 despite renewed US tariff threats against Canada. While crypto stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) experienced significant drops of 6% and 16% respectively, BTC's price action remained relatively calm. Traders are now focusing on major upcoming economic events that could introduce volatility. The key events are Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony and the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Pepperstone's head of research, Chris Weston, noted that dovish hints from Powell could boost risk-taking and be bullish for BTC. The consensus for the core PCE data is a benign 0.1% month-on-month increase, which could further support Fed rate cut expectations. However, Coinbase analysts caution that markets have largely disregarded the potential economic risks from the tariff situation, with a critical deadline approaching on July 9.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the cryptocurrency market experienced a broad selloff, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling over 2.5% and altcoins like Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP dropping between 5-7%. The downturn is attributed to renewed tariff threats from President Trump and heightened geopolitical fears regarding Iran. Traders are now keenly focused on upcoming key events, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony and the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Analysts at Pepperstone suggest that any dovish signals from Powell could be bullish for risk assets like BTC, while ING analysts anticipate only one rate cut this year. The approaching July 9 tariff deadline remains a significant risk factor for the market.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the cryptocurrency market remained stable despite renewed US tariff threats, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading down approximately 1.9% at $105,699.95. While the broader crypto market saw minor changes, crypto-related stocks experienced significant drops, with Coinbase (COIN) falling 6% and Circle (CRCL) plummeting 16%. Traders are now shifting their focus to major upcoming economic events, primarily Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony and the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Analysts cited in the report suggest that any dovish signals from Powell could encourage risk-taking and benefit BTC. The Core PCE data is expected to show a modest 0.1% month-on-month increase, potentially supporting arguments for a Fed rate cut. However, analysts at ING caution that the inflationary impact of tariffs could delay significant rate cuts until later in the year.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, a widely anticipated move. The Fed's updated economic projections signal a more cautious outlook, with GDP growth for the year revised down to 1.4% and inflation (PCE) forecasts revised up to 3.0%. While policymakers still anticipate 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, they foresee a slower pace of cuts in 2026 and 2027. Bitcoin (BTC) showed minimal reaction, trading around $104,200 post-announcement. Traders are now focused on two key events: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony to Congress and the release of the Core PCE inflation data. Analyst opinions are divided, with Pepperstone's Chris Weston suggesting a potential dovish shift in July, which would be bullish for risk assets like BTC, while ING analysts believe tariff uncertainties could delay significant rate cuts until December. The upcoming expiration of a tariff pause on July 9 adds another layer of complexity for markets.

According to @rovercrc, traders should monitor key upcoming economic events for their potential impact on Bitcoin (BTC), which is currently trading around $105,534. The main events are Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony and the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. The source suggests that any dovish signals from Powell or a soft PCE reading could fuel risk-taking and benefit BTC. Conversely, analysts at ING note that upcoming tariffs could create inflationary pressure and potentially delay rate cuts. The analysis also critiques the proposed U.S. stablecoin legislation (GENIUS Act), highlighting flaws such as having 55 potential state and federal regulators, which could lead to a 'race to the bottom,' and inefficient joint rulemaking processes. The author proposes that Congress should designate the Federal Reserve as the single regulator for stablecoins to foster innovation and ensure stability.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rate, but policymakers' new projections indicate fewer rate cuts in the coming years than previously expected. The Fed's updated forecast also points to lower economic growth, with GDP revised down to 1.4% for the year, and higher inflation, with core PCE now projected at 3.1%. Despite the hawkish revisions, Bitcoin (BTC) remained stable, trading around $104,200 following the announcement. For the week ahead, traders are focused on two key events: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress and the release of the core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Analysts like Chris Weston of Pepperstone suggest a dovish shift could be coming, which would be bullish for risk assets like BTC, while analysts at ING believe inflation clarity may not arrive until December, potentially delaying significant rate cuts. The upcoming expiration of a tariff pause on July 9 is also a major watchpoint for its potential impact on inflation and Fed policy.

According to @KobeissiLetter, crypto markets remained relatively stable despite renewed U.S. tariff threats against Canada, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $107,000. However, crypto-related stocks saw significant downturns, with Coinbase (COIN) falling 6% and Circle (CRCL) dropping 16%. Traders are now focusing on the upcoming week's key macroeconomic events, primarily Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony and the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation metric. According to Coinbase analysts, markets have largely ignored the potential economic risks from tariffs. Dovish signals from Powell or a soft PCE report, which consensus expects to show a 0.1% month-on-month increase, could boost risk assets like BTC, as suggested by Chris Weston of Pepperstone. Conversely, analysts at ING anticipate only one rate cut this year, citing potential inflation from tariffs set to take effect after July 9.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the cryptocurrency market remained largely unfazed by renewed US tariff threats, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading down slightly at around $106,700. Coinbase analysts noted that markets have generally disregarded the economic risks from the tariff situation, a sentiment they expect to continue. For the week ahead, traders are keenly focused on two major economic events: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony and the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, suggested that dovish signals from Powell could encourage risk-taking, potentially benefiting BTC. The consensus for the core PCE data points to a modest 0.1% monthly increase, which could support the case for interest rate cuts. However, analysts at ING believe only one rate cut is likely this year, anticipating that the inflationary impact of tariffs will become more apparent from July.